Introduction to climate scenarios
Climate scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) climate models, whose results were used in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report (AR5), are available. Projections are based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios.
View and download maps of projected changes in climate based on a multi-model ensemble of global climate model output. Variables include temperature, precipitation, surface wind speed, snow depth, sea ice thickness, and sea ice concentration.
Graphics and tables
Access plots of projected climate change for Canada based on a multi-model ensemble of 29 CMIP5 climate model output.
Download multi-model ensembles of global climate model projections in NetCDF or GeoTIFF format. Variables include temperature, precipitation, surface wind speed, snow depth, sea ice thickness, and sea ice concentration.
Multi-model ensembles of projected changes in temperature and precipitation used in the Canada's Changing Climate Report are available.
Individual global climate model output are also available for download. CMIP5 climate model projections have been regridded onto a common 1x1 degree global grid.
Statistically downscaled scenarios
Access statistically downscaled climate scenarios based on CMIP5 global climate model output.
Multi-model ensemble scenarios:
- The use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information
- Reference period: projections are expressed as anomalies with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for graphics and tables
Users requiring further information on the Environment and Climate Change Canada climate modelling program are invited to visit the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) information page.