Government of Canada / Gouvernement du Canada


Introduction to climate scenarios

Climate scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) climate models, whose results were used in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report (AR5), are available. Projections are based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios.

Multi-model ensemble scenarios:

  • The use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information
  • Reference period: projections are expressed as anomalies with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 for graphics and tables

Users requiring further information on the Environment and Climate Change Canada climate modelling program are invited to visit the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) information page.

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