CMIP6 climate scenarios

Time series

For these global time series datasets, the areal mean is computed on the common 1x1 degree grid. Global multi-model ensemble mean datasets and Canadian plots are available for temperature, precipitation, near-surface wind speed, sea ice concentration, sea ice thickness, and snow depth.

Due to model uncertainty and natural variability, the time series of each model and scenario over the common period 1900‑2100 are shown as anomalies relative to a baseline time period of 1995‑2014. The multi-model ensemble means (bolded) are also shown. While plots compare both the multi-model ensemble means and the results from individual contributing GCMs for Canada (atmospheric variables use only land points in Canada, and ocean variables use only sea points within the region 214.5 to 315.5 degrees East and 35.5 to 89.5 degrees North), only the multi-model ensemble mean is downloadable as a dataset (for the globe).

Finally, for the period 2081‑2100, the 20-year means are computed, and the box-and-whisker plots show the 25^th, 50^th (median), and 75^th percentiles sampled over the distribution of the 20-year means of the model time series to include both natural variability and model spread.

Maps

National maps and global datasets of projected changes in temperature, precipitation, near-surface wind speed, sea ice concentration, sea ice thickness, and snow depth averaged over 20 years for the near term (2021‑2040), mid term (2041‑2060 and 2061‑2080), and end of century (2081‑2100) are given, relative to a reference period of 1995‑2014. For each variable, the 5^th, 25^th, 50^th, 75^th, and 95^th percentile of the CMIP6 ensemble distribution are provided for SSP1‑1.9, SSP1‑2.6, SSP2‑4.5, SSP3‑7.0, SSP4‑6.0, and SSP5‑8.5.