dcsimg
Government of Canada / Gouvernement du Canada

Search

CMIP6 climate scenarios

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) scenarios are available here

Climate scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs), whose results were used in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report (AR6), are available. CMIP6 projections are based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. For more information on CMIP6 and SSPs, please see the overview. The IPCC's interactive atlas offers regional information on projected changes in climate using CMIP6 data for the globe.

For a Canadian perspective, the time series graphs, maps, and tabular data presented here are based on a multi-model ensemble of CMIP6 GCMs interpolated to a common 1x1 degree grid. Global gridded formats are available for the multi-model ensembles as well as for individual GCM outputs. Please see the technical notes for more details.

A subset of CMIP6 daily predictor variables that can be used for statistical downscaling of GCMs are also available for download. For more information on the CMIP6 predictors, please see the technical documentation.

Individual model datasets and all related derived products, including the multi-model ensembles, are subject to the terms of use of the source organization.

Time series

Time series

For these global time series datasets, the areal mean is computed on the common 1x1 degree grid using land points. Global multi-model ensemble mean datasets and Canadian plots are available for temperature and precipitation.

Due to model uncertainty and natural variability, the time series of each model and scenario over the common period 1900‑2100 are shown as anomalies relative to a baseline time period of 1995‑2014. The multi-model ensemble means (bolded) are also shown. While plots compare both the multi-model ensemble means and the results from individual contributing GCMs for Canada, only the multi-model ensemble mean is downloadable as a dataset (for the globe).

Finally, for the period 2081‑2100, the 20-year means are computed, and the box-and-whisker plots show the 25th, 50th (median), and 75th percentiles sampled over the distribution of the 20-year means of the model time series to include both natural variability and model spread.


Download time series

Note: Graphs display only national data and NetCDFs contain the global dataset.

Graph view
Maps

Maps

National maps and global datasets of projected changes in temperature and precipitation averaged over 20 years for the near term (2021‑2040), mid term (2041‑2060 and 2061‑2080), and end of century (2081‑2100) are given, relative to a reference period of 1995‑2014. For each variable, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentile of the CMIP6 ensemble distribution are provided for SSP1‑1.9, SSP1‑2.6, SSP2‑4.5, SSP3‑7.0, SSP4‑6.0, and SSP5‑8.5.


Select for preview and download:


Note: Graphs display only national data and NetCDFs contain the global dataset.

Time: 2021-2040

Tabular data

Tabular data

Provincial and national tabular data of projected changes in temperature and precipitation averaged over 20 years for the near term (2021‑2040), mid term (2041‑2060 and 2061‑2080), and end of century (2081‑2100) are given, relative to a reference period of 1995‑2014. For each variable, the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of the CMIP6 ensemble distribution are provided for SSP1‑1.9, SSP1‑2.6, SSP2‑4.5, SSP3‑7.0, SSP4‑6.0, and SSP5‑8.5.


Download table for all available SSPs:
Table preview:
Regions
SSP1-1.9 25th percentile
SSP1-1.9 50th percentile
SSP1-1.9 75th percentile
Canada 1.05 1.64 2.36
Alberta 0.91 1.18 1.47
British Columbia 0.85 1.22 1.46
Manitoba 1.08 1.36 1.88
New Brunswick 0.88 1.51 1.90
Newfoundland & Labrador 0.92 1.32 1.97
Northwest Territories 1.04 1.51 2.23
Nova Scotia 0.89 1.35 1.90
Nunavut 1.22 2.18 3.35
Ontario 0.98 1.51 1.96
Prince Edward Island 0.94 1.54 1.99
Quebec 0.92 1.56 2.27
Saskatchewan 1.08 1.31 1.62
Yukon Territory 0.89 1.22 1.46
Gridded data

Gridded data

Download monthly gridded data for individual GCMs or for the multi-model ensemble

Info:

  • CMIP6 GCM output have been regridded onto a common 1x1 degree global grid
  • CMIP6 GCM data is provided at a monthly time scale
  • Please see the CMIP6 technical notes and multi-model ensemble overview for more information
  • Original CMIP6 data can be accessed through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) data portals
  • In addition to these terms and conditions, individual model datasets are subject to the terms of use of the source organization
Date modified: